Nifty breaks winning streak, but remains in medium-term uptrend
The Nifty broke its three-day winning streak on September 18, falling 59 points to close at 20,133. The decline was led by weak global cues, as investors remained cautious ahead of a week packed with central bank meetings in five countries.
Despite the recent pullback, the Nifty’s primary and intermediate trend remains positive, as it has been holding above its 50, 100, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). On the weekly chart, the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) is at 71.64, which suggests that the market is not extremely overbought and there is scope for more upsides in the medium term.
On the derivatives side, there has been aggressive Put writing at 19,800-20,000 levels, which coincides with the 11 and 20-day moving averages placed at 19,918 and 19,771. Therefore, on the downside, 19,770-20,000 could now be considered as an immediate support for the Nifty.
While the possibility of a running correction in the next few days cannot be ruled out, experts believe that the Nifty could move towards immediate upside targets of 20,600. This target is the 38.2 percent Fibonacci extension of the recent up-move from the lows of March 2023 to the highs of July 2023. Therefore, traders are advised to accumulate longs on decline with a stop-loss at 19,770 on the Nifty on a closing basis.
Broad market indices like Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices have underperformed the Nifty during the last week. Experts believe that they may continue to underperform for the coming few weeks before they resume their uptrend. In terms of strategy, they recommend having a bias towards Largecaps.
Three buy calls for the next 3-4 weeks:
- AMI Organics: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,302 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,220 | Targets: Rs 1,393-1,460 | Return: 12 percent
- GSFC: Buy | LTP: Rs 172 | Stop-Loss: Rs 160 | Targets: Rs 186-195 | Return: 13 percent
- Axis Bank: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,025 | Stop-Loss: Rs 970 | Targets: Rs 1,085-1,130 | Return: 10 percent
Please note that these are just recommendations and investors should always do their own research before making any investment decisions.
- 22 Sep
Technical Analysis Report for Nifty and Three Buy Calls
The Nifty index has been on a strong uptrend in the past three weeks, but it has recently retraced some of those gains. It is now expected to oscillate within the 19,605 to 19,878 range over the next few sessions. Three stocks that look good for buying over the next 2-3 weeks are Havells India, KSB, and Gujarat Ambuja Exports. All three stocks have strong bullish momentum and are trading above their key moving averages.
- 22 Sep
Maruti Suzuki Stock Gains on Bullish Stance from Global Brokerages
Maruti Suzuki stock gains on bullish stance from global brokerages Shares of Maruti Suzuki India surged on Friday after global brokerages Citi and Morgan Stanley maintained bullish stance on the counter. Both brokerages cited the company's improving product mix and attractive valuation as key reasons for their optimism. In addition, Maruti Suzuki reported strong sales performance in August 2023, with total domestic sales jumping 14 percent year-on-year and sale of utility vehicles jumping 118 percent year-on-year. Overall, the bullish stance from global brokerages and the company's strong sales performance are providing a boost to Maruti Suzuki stock.
- 22 Sep
PNB Gilts Hits Upper Circuit on Inclusion of Indian Bonds in JPMorgan Index
Shares of PNB Gilts hit upper circuit on September 22, 2023, following news that India's inclusion in JPMorgan's bond index is seen driving billions of dollars of inflows. The index provider will add Indian bonds to its widely-tracked emerging market index starting June 28, 2024. PNB Gilts is a primary dealer in government securities and other fixed-income instruments. The inclusion of Indian bonds in JPMorgan's index is expected to attract significant foreign inflows, which is likely to benefit PNB Gilts and other primary dealers in government securities.
- 22 Sep
Indian Bond Markets to Remain Stable in Near Term After JPMorgan Inclusion
Indian bond markets are expected to remain stable in the near term after JPMorgan's inclusion of India in its widely tracked emerging market debt index, according to BlackRock's head of Asia Pacific fixed income, Neeraj Seth. Seth expects inflows of around $20 billion to $25 billion into India after the maximum weight threshold is achieved on the GBI-EM index. Given the size of the global government bond market, this is relatively small and is unlikely to have a significant impact on volatility.
- 22 Sep
Indian market drops on September 22 despite inclusion of Indian bonds in JP Morgan index
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty fell for the fourth consecutive day on September 22, despite the inclusion of Indian bonds in the JP Morgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) global index suite from June 2024. The market is expected to remain volatile in the near term, with key support at 19,600 for Nifty.